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How will the China-EU Investment Agreement affect the stainless steel industry?

作者:超级管理员 时间:2022-05-06 09:17:51 点击:30 次

  OnDecember30,2020,theleadersofChinaandtheEUjointlyannouncedthecompletionoftheEU-ChinaComprehensiveAgreementonInvestment,whichisaframeworkagreementdesignedtoreplacetheexistingbilateralinvestmenttreatiesbetweenChinaandEUmemberstatesandbuildunityChina-EUbilateralinvestmentsystem.


  Thisnegotiationhasgonethrough35roundsofnegotiationsandlastedformorethan7years.Thenegotiationwasoncestalledandacceleratedinthepastoneandahalfyears.Thenegotiationwasfinallycompletedattheendof2020,whichisalsoaftertheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipAgreement(RCEP).,Chinahascompletedanothermajoropening-upmeasure,whichisanothersignificantvictoryofmultilateralisminthecourseofyearsofanti-globalization.


  So,willthecompletionofthe"China-EUInvestmentAgreement"negotiationshaveanimpactonthestainlesssteelindustry?


  1.IftheChina-EUInvestmentAgreementisreached,willtheEUstillhavetariffbarrierstoChina?


  Inrecentyears,duetotheEU'scontinuedanti-dumpingofstainlesssteelexportsfrommainlandChina,theEUcurrentlyimposesataxrateofmorethan20%onstainlesssteelfrommainlandChina.Then,iftheChina-EUInvestmentAgreementisreached,willtheEUstillhavetariffbarriersagainstChina?


  ThefirstthingtobeclearisthattheChina-EUInvestmentAgreementdoesnotinvolvetariffissues.Secondly,itisassumedthatthe"China-EuropeInvestmentAgreement"hascertainbenefitsforstainlesssteelexports,mainlyrelatedtostainlesssteelproducts,suchashouseholdappliances.However,afterthepreliminarynegotiationsarecompleted,theagreementneedstobefurthertransformedintolegalprovisions,whichcanonlycomeintoforceafterapprovalbytheEuropeanParliament.Theprocessisexpectedtostartinthesecondhalfof2021.


  2.FromtheperspectiveofEuropeanopenareas,whatimpactdoesthe"China-EUInvestmentAgreement"haveonChinesestainlesssteelcompaniesgoingglobal?


  Accordingtorelevantinformation,theChina-EUInvestmentAgreementwilllockintheexistingChineseinvestmentmarketaccessrightsinEurope,whileensuringtheopeningofsensitiveareassuchasenergy,agriculture,fishery,audio-visual,andpublicservicesinEurope.Inaddition,accordingtothe"GeneralAgreementonTradeinServices"(GATS),theEUwillopenuptheserviceindustrytoalargeextent.


  FromChina'sstandpoint,theEuropeanopenfieldprovidesChineseinvestorswithgreateropportunitiestoentertheEUenergywholesaleandretailmarket,renewableenergymarketandotherfields,andpromotethedevelopmentofChina'snewenergy,automobileandotherrelatedindustries.ForChineseinvestors,theagreementalsomeansthattherearemorepotentialinvestmentopportunitiesintheEU,includingChina'scompetitiveconstructionindustry,telecommunicationsindustry,etc.,whichmaystimulatedomesticdemandforstainlesssteel.


  However,fromtheperspectiveofstainlesssteelcompanies,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingoutandestablishingplantsintheEUisslim.DuetotherelativelylargeaccumulationofscrapsteelinEurope,Chinesestainlesssteelmillsmayenjoysomeadvantagesinthecostofstainlesssteelsmeltingwhentheygooutandinvestinconstruction.However,allstainlesssteelmillsinEuropecurrentlyuseelectricfurnacesforproduction.IfyougotoEuropetobuildaplant,theoverallcostistoohigh.Secondly,fromademandperspective,Europeanstainlesssteelproductionhasbeendecliningyearbyyear.Inaddition,duetotheimpactofthenewcrownepidemic,theEuropeaneconomyhasfallenintoadownturn,andthedemandsidehasremainedweak.Therefore,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingtoEuropetobuildfactoriesgenerallydoesnotexist.


  3.FromtheperspectiveofChina'sopenfields,whatimpactdoesthe"China-EUInvestmentAgreement"haveondomesticstainlesssteelcompanies?


  Duringthenegotiations,theareasthatChinapromisedtofurtheropenincludemanufacturing,automobiles,financialservices,healthcare,communications/cloudservices,computerservices,internationalshipping,airtransportation,businessservices,environmentalservices,etc.Atpresent,abouthalfofEU'sdirectinvestmentinChinaisconcentratedinthemanufacturingsector,suchastransportationandtelecommunicationsequipment,chemicals,healthequipment,andsoon.Intheautomotivesector,Chinaagreedtograduallycanceltherequirementsforjointventuresandpromisedmarketaccessfornewenergyvehicles.Inaddition,Chinaagreedtoabolishjointventurerequirementsforcertainindustriesinthefinancialservicesandhealthcaresectors.


  FromthestandpointoftheEuropeanUnion,theEuropeanUnionhasnewopportunitiesinChina’sautomotive,consumerproducts,biomedicine,financialservices,andmedicalandhealthsectors,butmorelikelyitistheoutputinthetechnicalfield,whichhasabasicimpactontheproductionofthestainlesssteelindustry.No.


  Insummary,ingeneral,the"China-EuropeInvestmentAgreement"doesnothaveanypositiveimpactonstainlesssteelandstainlesssteelcompaniesthemselves,butitmaybepositivefortheexportofstainlesssteelproducts.


  中欧投资协定,对不锈钢行业影响几何


  2020年12月30日,中欧领导人共同宣布完成中欧全面投资协议(EU-ChinaComprehensiveAgreementonInvestment),这是一个框架协议,旨在取代中国和欧盟成员国现有的双边投资条约,构建统一的中欧双边投资制度。


  这一谈判经历了35轮磋商,前后持续超过7年,谈判曾一度停滞,近一年半内有所加快,终于在2020年年底完成谈判,这也是继区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)之后,中国完成的另一个重大对外开放举措,也是在多年的逆全球化进程中,多边主义取得的又一次意义重大的胜利。


  那么,“中欧投资协定”谈判的完成,对不锈钢行业会有影响吗?


  一、如果“中欧投资协定”达成,欧盟对中国还会有关税壁垒么?


  近年来,由于欧盟对中国大陆的不锈钢出口持续的反倾销,目前欧盟对中国大陆不锈钢的征收税率高达20%以上,那么,如果“中欧投资协定”达成,欧盟对中国还会有关税壁垒么?


  首先需要明确的是,“中欧投资协定”并不涉及关税问题。其次,假设“中欧投资协定”对不锈钢出口有一定利好,主要系不锈钢的相关制成品,比如家电等等。但初步谈判完成,协议需进一步转化成法律条文,并经过欧洲议会批准后才可生效。该过程预计将在2021年下半年才可开始。


  二、从欧洲开放领域来看,“中欧投资协定”对中国不锈钢企业走出去有何影响?


  从相关资料显示来看,中欧投资协定将锁定现有的中国对欧投资市场准入权,同时确保开放欧洲能源、农业、渔业、视听、公共服务等敏感领域。此外,根据《服务贸易总协定》(GATS),欧盟将在很大程度上开放服务行业。


  站在中国立场,欧洲开放领域,为中国投资者提供了更大的进入欧盟能源批发零售市场、可再生能源市场等领域的机会,带动中国新能源、汽车等相关产业的出口贸易发展。对于中国投资者,该协议达成还意味着在欧盟有更多潜在的投资机会,包括中国有竞争优势的建筑产业、电信产业等等,届时或许会拉动国内不锈钢需求。


  但是从不锈钢企业角度而言,国内不锈钢厂走出去在欧盟建厂的可能性微乎其微。由于欧洲的废钢积累量比较大,中国不锈钢钢厂走出去投资建设,在不锈钢冶炼成本上可能会享有一些优势。但是目前欧洲的不锈钢钢厂全部使用电炉生产,若去欧洲建厂,整体成本过于高昂。其次,从需求角度来讲,欧洲本土不锈钢生产逐年下降,加之由于新冠疫情的影响,欧洲经济陷入低迷,需求端维持弱势。因此,国内不锈钢厂去欧洲建设工厂的可能性,总体而言不存在。


  三、从中国开放领域来看,“中欧投资协定”对国内的不锈钢企业有何影响?


  在谈判中,中国答应进一步开放的领域包括制造业、汽车、金融服务业、医疗健康、通讯/云服务、计算机服务、国际海运、航空运输、商业服务、环境服务等。目前,大约一半的欧盟对华直接投资集中在制造业领域,如运输和电信设备、化学品、健康设备等等。而汽车领域方面,中国同意逐步取消合资企业要求,承诺新能源汽车的市场准入。此外,中国同意取消金融服务业及医疗健康领域中部分行业的合资要求。


  站在欧盟的立场,欧盟在中国的汽车、消费品、生物医药、金融服务和医疗卫生等众多领域出现了新的机遇,但更多的可能是技术领域内的输出,对不锈钢行业生产的影响基本没有。


  综上所述,总体而言,“中欧投资协定”对不锈钢及不锈钢企业本身并没有什么利好的影响,但对不锈钢制成品的出口可能会是利好。


  


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